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Why Doctors Don't Order Tests

A test's value isn't the fact it adds — it's how much uncertainty it removes, which turns out to be a different question entirely.

A vast spiralling cloud of thousands of tiny cyan points scattered across a near-black field, drawn inward along faint concentric arcs to a single small, bright amber core at the center.

A Little Side Trip


I’ve been thinking about something.

People often assume that doctors order tests because they want more information.

That sounds reasonable.

A patient comes to the Emergency Department with chest pain. Blood is drawn. An electrocardiogram is performed. A chest X-ray is ordered.

From the outside, it looks like we’re collecting information.

But the longer I’ve practiced medicine, the less I think that’s what we’re really doing.

“Can I learn something new?”

“Can I reduce enough uncertainty to make the next decision safely?”

Those aren’t the same question.

Sometimes a single conversation with a patient changes everything.

Sometimes a laboratory test confirms exactly what I already suspected.

Sometimes a scan comes back completely normal, and that result is just as valuable as finding something abnormal.

The value of the test wasn’t that it added another fact.

Its value was that it changed how certain — or uncertain — I was about what was happening.

The more I think about it, the more I wonder if this extends far beyond medicine.

Think about buying a house.

Choosing a school.

Accepting a new job.

Or deciding whether to trust someone you’ve just met.

We often tell ourselves we’re looking for more information.

But are we?

Maybe information isn’t the destination. Maybe it’s simply one of the ways we reduce uncertainty.

That thought has stayed with me because it changes the question.

Instead of asking,

“How can I gather more information?”

“What information would actually help me make a better decision?”

Those are very different conversations.

One can continue forever.

The other knows when enough is enough.

I’ve been wondering…

How many decisions in our lives are really about collecting information — and how many are actually about reducing uncertainty?

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